Research
We carry out scenario analysis and research to examine and understand how potential changes to supply and demand will impact the future of fossil fuel-exposed companies and projects. This analysis helps the investment community better understand the financial implications of tackling climate change
How oil- and gas-dependent Canadian provinces face fiscal strain as the energy transition progresses A number of Canadian...
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True Oil & Gas Value in Canada and Beyond Despite a decline in the share of free cashflow allocated to upstream oil and...
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Sustainable. Abundant. Feasible – why SAF is unlikely to be all three at once. Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to...
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A temperature check on the oil and gas sector’s climate alignment, 10 years on from the Paris Agreement. Carbon Tracker’s...
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Crude Intentions III: One step forward, one step back in executive...
Oil & Gas Analyst Note April 2025With demand for hydrocarbons expected to peak this decade, oil and gas companies seeking to manage energy transition risks should...
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Petrochemical Imbalance: Why chemicals are unlikely to prop up oil demand
Oil & Gas Analyst Note December 2024Some of the largest oil and gas companies are pivoting towards petrochemicals as they reckon with the fact that a decline in...
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As the energy transition accelerates, the oil and gas industry must contend with a shrinking market for its products. In...
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This week, reports[i] have emerged of bp’s CEO Murray Auchincloss latest U-turn regarding bp’s transition strategy: the...
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Asset disposals are commonplace in the oil and gas industry, and M&A has long been a feature of the industry. Yet, as the...
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Carbon Tracker Methodology In a series of reports since 2011, Carbon Tracker has explored the financial implications of the...
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Fossil fuel subsidy reform: A significant energy transition risk that...
Oil & Gas Blog September 2024By any measure, fossil fuel subsidies are immense. Combined estimates from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and...
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Investor Call to Action: FCA Consultation on New Disclosure Rules
Accounting, Audit, & Disclosure Report August 2024The FCA have just announced a Prospectus Review. Specifically, we draw your attention to a key section in the FCA’s...
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Methane Emissions from Oil and Gas Majors: Reconciling Different Estimates
Oil & Gas Analyst Note May 2024There has been great interest in recent years in reducing methane emissions as part of efforts to limit climate change. Public...
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The fossil fuel industry is having a bad energy transition: It is misaligned with stakeholders, climate targets and is...
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Paris Maligned II: Climate alignment assessments reveal oil and gas company transition risk exposure The window of time to...
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The UK Government’s CCUS strategy risks locking consumers into a high-cost, fossil-based future, despite cleaner and cheaper...
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Crude Intentions II: How oil and gas execs are still incentivised to grow...
Oil & Gas Report February 2024As the energy transition continues to accelerate, demand for each of the fossil fuels is likely to peak before 2030. Oil and gas...
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Energy is a very long game: yet fossil fuel companies are taking a lot of...
Energy Transition Blog February 2024Oil and gas incumbents are doubling down on investment and their financial backers are exiting governance bodies: this raises the...
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Private Eyes Wide Shut: Private Equity Investments in Oil and Gas at Risk...
Oil & Gas Report January 2024It is increasingly clear that the energy transition is well underway, with renewables substituting for oil and...
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From Net Zero to New Zero – Reserves Estimates in a Decarbonizing...
Accounting, Audit, & Disclosure Report December 2023Oil and gas reserve classification systems today are focused on the value oil and gas has when burnt. Devised in the first part...
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How many new emissions did oil and gas exploration add last year? Nobody...
Energy Transition Blog December 2023If you are reading this, you know that at a time when the world is burning, and Net Zero seems like a distant dream, oil and gas...
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PetroStates of Decline: oil and gas producers face growing fiscal risks as...
Analyst Note December 2023Transition risks for petrostates are higher than ever This report, an update of our 2021 Beyond Petrostates report, finds that...
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Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has promised to “max out” North Sea reserves – but the plan fails on economic, energy security,...
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Carbon Tracker has long warned of the risk of investing in future stranded assets; i.e., assets that fail to generate the returns...
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Absolute Impact 2023: Progress on oil and gas emissions targets has stalled
Analyst Notes Analyst Note September 2023Carbon Tracker is pleased to launch the 4th edition of our Absolute Impact series, in which we assess and rank the climate goals...
Read MoreMany leading asset managers’ investment practices deviate from climate positioning. As awareness of the climate crisis...
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Midstream Running Dry: Energy transition also threatens firms that store...
Flash Notes Flash Note April 2023The midstream sector is a crucial link in the oil and gas supply chain; like the industry at large it faces a series of risks as...
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In September 2020, the People’s Republic of China announced targets of peaking economy-wide carbon emissions before 2030 and...
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Major oil and gas companies still have choices about how to minimise the risk of having stranded assets, for now. Early in...
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With oil and gas firms announcing executive pay packages, some have come under fire for the bumper payouts awarded to their top...
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In response to state regulations, Colorado oil and gas well operators have submitted their financial assurance plans. On this...
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Energy Transition’s clean technologies are empowering an industrial...
Energy Transition Blog February 2023There must have been a time in the 1920s some 20 years after the introduction of the Model T Ford in the United States, and with...
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Recent extreme price spikes for the GB power market have triggered key discussions over whether the time has come for a shift in...
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Download Infographic Here The energy transition may well be determined by the phenomenon of S-curves. This is because the future...
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Investors Need to Look Carefully at Stranded Asset Risks
Regulatory & Policy Guest Blog January 2023This article was first published by Brink News, with thanks to Thomas Carver. The shift away from a carbon-based economy risks...
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The energy transition threatens companies involved in the downstream refining sector whose revenue is dependent on the continued...
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Crude Intentions: How oil and gas executives are still rewarded to chase...
Oil & Gas Analyst Note November 2022The energy transition is fundamentally shifting the way oil and gas companies operate; as demand falls for fossil fuels,...
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Europe’s dash for LNG makes case against Asian gas investment stronger
Oil & Gas Blog September 2022This year has seen the fundamental dynamics of global energy markets turned completely on their head. A potent cocktail of...
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Why drilling for more fossil fuels won’t bring UK energy security or cut...
Oil & Gas Blog September 2022The UK’s energy security strategy is back at the forefront of political debate. As the government looks to show leadership...
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When oil companies defer saving for asset retirement obligations (AROs), the liabilities accumulate. Meanwhile production, and...
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But it might just save the world North American oil and gas companies are going big on carbon capture, utilisation, and...
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In June, Saudi Aramco published its first ever Sustainability Report, containing details of its "net zero by 2050” target and...
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Over $1 trillion of oil & gas assets risk becoming stranded as a result of policy action on climate and the rise in...
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Fossil fuel commodity prices are likely to remain volatile with the prospect for further embargos. This is a manifestation of non...
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Double or Nothing: How regulators are gambling on the future self-interest...
Oil & Gas Report June 2022The Gulf of Mexico has long been a major oil and gas producing region for the U.S., but field depletion in shallower regions near...
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Oil and gas companies are still failing to commit to the absolute emissions reductions necessary to link their businesses to the...
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The risks associated with gas infrastructure investment have never been higher This report continues our series exploring the...
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Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has created terrible consequences for those living inside Ukraine, but at the same time...
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With respect to asset retirement obligations in the oil patch, every regulator has to answer three questions: How do you...
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Poland is approaching a key point in determining the future direction of its power system and the technologies that it wishes to...
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ExxonMobil is planning on climate failure despite ‘Advancing Climate...
Oil & Gas Blog February 2022Late last month ExxonMobil launched its Advancing Climate Solutions – 2022 Progress Report,[1] which describes how it is...
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Firms can avoid wasting $500bn with managed approach to transition in Inevitable Policy Response scenario even if oil demand...
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Carbon Tracker recently announced that it was creating a Global Registry of Fossil Fuels, the “Registry,” which will be a...
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Tackling the Methane problem: why investors should drive change at...
Energy Transition Blog January 2022To keep 1.5°C alive, immediate action on methane emissions is required from the oil and gas industry, with significant impact...
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In January, the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) will vote on the new financial assurance rules for Colorado,...
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Mistaking Price Volatility for Market Strength may Store Up Long Term...
Oil & Gas Blog November 2021Right now, global energy commodity prices remain close to long-term highs despite recent declines. But short-term strength in...
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Australian oil and gas mergers: Exposing the weakness of company...
Oil & Gas Flash Note November 2021Mergers and acquisition (M&A) activity is shaking up the Australian oil and gas sector. In two proposed all-share deals,...
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When a well is drilled, a legal obligation to plug the well and reclaim the surface is created This is a critical aspect of...
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Repsol has seemingly upped its emissions cutting game In early October, responding to shareholder pressure, Repsol announced a...
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Unabated gas plants’ future role in the power system should be predominantly limited to backup reserve to allow for flexible...
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Compared to other large oil and gas producing states, California and Ohio rank last in forcing the closure of idled, abandoned...
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Colorado’s ineffective financial assurance and well plugging rules have allowed the growth of a large portfolio of marginal and...
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Committing to net zero is not enough – the emissions reduction pathway is critical Carbon Tracker’s fifth annual...
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Financial assurance requirements are universally considered to be too low to pay for plugging and abandoning wells. An inventory...
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Oil and gas companies are increasingly announcing new climate goals as they seek to maintain a social licence to...
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A cost-optimized analysis for a renewables investment schedule for South Korea shows that a more ambitious rollout of renewable...
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Shell and Eni’s recent strategy updates have highlighted a key emerging point in the debate on oil and gas companies’...
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The value of share offerings in fossil fuel producing and related companies dropped by $123 billion in the last decade,...
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There’s a quip about lawyers that goes 99% of attorneys give the rest a bad name. The same can be said about oil producers...
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A Clean Energy Portfolio (CEP) is already more competitive than new combined-cycle gas plants (CCGTs) in Italy. Foot Off the Gas...
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“Having looked to government for bread, on the first scarcity they will turn and bite the hand that fed them.” Edmund...
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2020 was a tough year for big oil. Short-term demand was hammered by the impacts of Covid-19, while the ever-growing...
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Emissions trajectories continue to bend lower Last month, both Shell and Eni revised their scope 3 emissions plans, updating...
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Betting on new gas today means shouldering consumers with higher prices tomorrow as well as missing the net zero pathway the UK...
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Fossil fuel-reliant countries could see a drop of 51% in government oil and gas revenues in a shift to a low-carbon world over...
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COP26: A chance to reset and eliminate obstacles – coal in sights
Power & Utilities Blog January 20212021 is a year of opportunity; one of resetting, reshaping and a chance to remove distortions that hinder an orderly energy...
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Carbon Tracker's Christmas Cracker had a makeover in 2020. This infographic originally went out in our December newsletter,...
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Groundhog Pay: How executive incentives trap companies in a loop of fossil...
Oil & Gas Analyst Note December 2020The energy transition will require oil and gas companies to fundamentally change the way they do business. Groundhog Pay...
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Shopping the Black Friday shale – North America’s oil and gas industry...
Oil & Gas Blog November 20202020 has, to put it mildly, been full of surprises. Oil and gas companies, long predictable and averse to change, have even...
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The oil and gas industry, like many other commodity industries, has long been characterised by volatility, instability and...
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Between 2014 and the end of 2019, ExxonMobil 's return to shareholders was negative 10%. In September 2014, Carbon Tracker...
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Given the 24 hour news cycle around the US Congressional and Presidential Election, it would be easy to focus only on what...
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In a series of reports since 2011, Carbon Tracker has shown the financial and stranded asset risks to fossil fuel producers...
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Billion Dollar Orphans: Why millions of oil and gas wells could become...
Oil & Gas Report October 2020There are 2.6 million unplugged onshore wells in the U.S., with another estimated 1.2 million that are undocumented. In It’s...
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BP has elaborated on its strategy to deliver net zero – cutting oil and gas production by “at least” 40% by...
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Click here to view Carbon Tracker's Annual Review 2019 In 2019 our objective was to accelerate the energy transition by...
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Carbon Tracker's modelling shows no new oil sands are needed in a low carbon world. Prospective pipelines and projects represent...
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There is growing recognition that drastic changes to oil and gas consumption are required to meet the finite limits of a global...
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The Earth's temperatures continue to rise causing catastrophic climate change. The risks of climate change are having major...
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Carbon Tracker pioneered work on the oil and gas industry’s “stranded assets”; as investors increasingly ask whether oil...
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The Impair State: The Paris Agreement starts to impact oil & gas...
Oil & Gas Analyst Note June 2020The oil industry’s financial statements reflect climate change conflict Oil and gas companies have never been under more...
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Key findings: Our research shows that UK Export Finance supports upstream oil projects that seem very likely to become...
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At the end of February, Italian oil major Eni announced new carbon emissions reduction plans. While not aiming for net zero...
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In ancient Greek theatre, deus ex machina (“god from the machine”) is when a seemingly intractable plot issue is...
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This blog updates our 2018 note Carbon Budgets Explained. Carbon budgets – the amount of carbon dioxide emissions permitted...
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The Covid-19 crisis is showing up the oil and gas industry’s exposure to the threat of falling demand, a forewarning of what...
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One of last year’s key developments relating to climate change risks was a handful of fossil fuel producers agreeing to show...
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South Korea needs to phase-out unabated gas by 2050 in a Paris-aligned scenario or potentially risk $60 billion in stranded...
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Written by: Greg Rogers, Theron Horton, Rob Schuwerk Is the goal to get out all of the oil, or get out of the retirement...
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The arms race in setting carbon emissions targets is such that Shell, once one of the industry leaders when it announced its...
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COVID-19 continues to shake the global economy, and energy markets are no exception. Oil in particular finds itself caught...
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Fanning the Flames: How executives continue to be rewarded to produce more...
Analyst Note March 2020Company executives pay practice doesn’t yet live up to climate ambition, with the gap between stated ambition and demonstrable...
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The piece originally was posted to LGIM Future World Blog on February 26, 2020. It is reprinted with permission. By Nick...
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Carbon Tracker’s fundamental insight is that the oil and gas industry’s growth plans do not fit in a low carbon world. As...
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Amid ever-increasing concerns over climate risks, BP is the latest European oil and gas company to announce a climate goal with...
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In this report, we look at the Inevitable Policy Response (IPR), which models the potential impacts of delayed tough...
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Repsol has just announced a shift in strategic direction – to become a net zero emissions company by 2050. This move extends...
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To deflate the carbon bubble and protect investors, oil & gas companies must shrink The world’s listed oil and gas majors...
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Carbon Tracker's mission is to align investors strategies to climate change action. We recognise that there is...
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Once upon a time – the 1990s if you are interested -- there was a wondrous oil company called Exxon. It was run by a clever...
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This report provides an update to our 2017 and 2018 "2 Degrees of Separation" reports, along with an updated methodology. The...
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The following piece originally was posted to Oilprice.com on March 3, 2019. It is reprinted with permission. Investors are...
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UK Net Zero 2050 – good intentions, but aren’t we missing something?
Power & Utilities Blog May 2019The UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) has reported on its recommended targets for the UK to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions...
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Why shareholders should rethink executive reward For much of the early part of this century, the oil and gas industry was in...
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In this study we review the remuneration practice used in the oil and gas industry and look at alignment with either growth or...
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Why carbon intensity ambitions are welcome, but strict limits on future project sanction remain the route to Paris...
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This blog originally appeared on the IEEFA website By Tom Sanzillo, Kathy Hipple and Clark Williams-Derry Invest in the...
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By Paul Spedding BP chief executive Bob Dudley is at risk of being branded an altruist if his “Oil and Money” speech to...
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Carbon capture and storage, or CCS, refers to technologies that allow us to capture CO2 at the source of its production and...
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Explain to comply – how can oil and gas companies show alignment with...
Oil & Gas Blog September 2018One of the questions we are most frequently asked by investors is – how can we tell if a company is “Paris compliant”? This...
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Market counts down to the MSR The EU carbon market has been the hottest commodity market in the world over the last 16...
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This report updates our 2 Degrees of Separation report, published in June 2017 2 Degrees of Separation laid out a framework...
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EV Oil Demand Displacement Interactive Tool This report and accompanying interactive tool look exclusively at...
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Closing the Gap to a Paris-compliant EU-ETS Carbon pricing, whether via cap-and-trade schemes or taxes, is not sufficient on...
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Trial and Error: Occidental’s first stab at climate-related risks
Accounting, Audit, & Disclosure Blog March 2018Summary Occidental neglects demand fundamentals in its 2°C analysis and opts for the foregone conclusion of a test against...
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This study updates our report 2 Degrees of Separation, and for the first time quantifies risk of overinvestment under a 1.75ᵒC...
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ExxonMobil's Energy and Carbon Summary is a step in the right direction, but lacks clarity across a number of...
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A PDF version of this paper is available here. An updated version of this note is available now in Carbon Budgets: Where are...
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If you read just one thing this year…… first, it’s December! What took you so long?......second, make it this. Much...
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Headlines Growth of electric vehicles (EVs) in scenarios developed by some oil majors is ten years behind the level expected...
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Explore the report webpage: 2degreeseparation.com This report, produced by Carbon Tracker, Principles for Responsible...
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Unexpectedly, the oil and gas love-in that is CERAWeek saw the latest round of climate risk disclosure emerging from the oil...
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The 12 Days of Carbon Tracker Well…that was different. 2016 has been quite the year of change. A year of political events that...
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Even if oil prices rise in the aftermath of the OPEC agreement on cutting production, the oil industry should be wary of...
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Carbon Tracker’s work on the energy transition has already demonstrated the value in challenging traditional energy model...
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Why a 2°C business model is less risky than 'business-as-usual' for oil companies. The business model for many companies in the...
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Carbon Tracker’s reports and blogs are available in seven different languages: Arabic...
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U.S. and European oil and gas companies are under increasing pressure from shareholders to stress test their businesses against a...
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A series of recent Forbes articles intend to cast doubt on the relevance of stranded asset risks to investors. Mark Fulton,...
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In 2016, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has a major opportunity to develop a new industry, an opportunity that became something of...
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By Paul Spedding, Former Global Co-Head of Oil And Gas Research at HSBC and Advisor to Carbon Tracker. First appeared on...
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Just because one of Britain's best loved vehicles rolled off the production line for the last time last week doesn't...
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Stranded Assets a Response: Myth or Reality? Late last year respected British economist Dieter Helm dismissed the concept of...
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The data is clear – the energy transition is underway, and the direction of travel is away from fossil fuels. But not everyone...
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Is Royal Dutch Shell, one of the world’s biggest oil and gas companies, really turning its back on fossil fuels? Not only has...
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Low carbon scenarios do include the potential for gas demand to grow over the next decade. But if we are to stay within a carbon...
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Petrobras’ recent launch of a notional $2.5 billion worth of 100-year bonds has been viewed as evidence that investors,...
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First appeared in BusinessGreen As the world’s top financiers gather in Paris ahead of International Climate Finance Day on...
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US shale production has prompted increased volatility in the oil markets, as exemplified by the 50% drop in prices during the...
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The steep fall in the price of oil since the middle of last year has brought volatility back to the market with a vengeance,...
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The 2015 Oil Spending Review is in Full Swing With oil prices collapsing to between $50/$60 a barrel (at the...
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Over the past 18 months the Carbon Tracker Initiative has written a number of studies on the economics of the controversial...
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During 2014, following in the footsteps of Shell and ExxonMobil, oil and gas industry association IPIECA published a “fact...
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How the oil price collapse can deliver the boost the green economy needs
Oil & Gas Blog January 2015Carbon Tracker Initiative's Anthony Hobley argues that far from being a disaster for clean tech, low oil prices could aid...
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Carbon Tracker comment on US-China climate change agreement “For Carbon Tracker, today’s announcement of the “joint...
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Shell underestimates risk for up to $77 bln of high cost oil projects The Carbon Tracker Initiative (CTI) and Energy...
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This report is a risk analysis which provides a tool for the majority of investors who cannot simply divest, so they can...
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Exxon: Is business as normal the right strategy? Earlier this month, ExxonMobil published a document entitled, “Energy and...
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Carbon Tracker respond to the US Department of State's Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (FSEIS) with our new...
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This new research from Carbon Tracker and the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants reveals that current financial...
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The fourth in the series of Carbon Tracker's Unburnable Carbon reports, focuses on Brazil - a country with the fascinating...
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This new research from Carbon Tracker and the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at LSE calls...
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Carbon Tracker and Standard & Poors have been working together on the implications of carbon constraints for credit ratings...
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This is the original report which pioneered the concept of the 'Carbon Bubble'. This award-winning analysis by Carbon...
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