Despite progress in electrifying public transport, private EV adoption remains low, even as electric vehicles offer lower running costs and Chile’s electricity supply becomes increasingly renewable.
London, 10 November – Chile could save approximately US$27 billion in cumulative fuel import costs by 2050 through an accelerated transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs), according to a new report from Carbon Tracker.
The research finds that continued reliance on petrol and diesel vehicles would leave Chile exposed to decades of additional fuel demand and international oil-price volatility. Chile imports almost all its crude oil, while transport accounts for 57% of national oil consumption.
Under a business-as-usual scenario, cumulative road transport fuel import costs could reach almost US$120 billion by 2050. An accelerated transition to BEV could also reduce Chile’s annual transport fuel import costs by as much as 56% in 2050, compared with business as usual, while avoiding approximately 600 million barrels of oil equivalent in cumulative fossil-fuel consumption.
The report, Leapfrog to Electric: Chile, also finds that BEVs cost approximately 50% less per kilometre to operate than petrol cars and 20% less than diesel cars, based on its fuel-price and charging assumptions. Reducing vehicle-related air pollution could generate a further US$493 million in cumulative health-related economic benefits by 2050.
Chile’s electrification opportunity
Chile has several advantages that could support faster adoption. Almost two-thirds of its electricity comes from renewable sources, while its position as the world’s largest copper producer and second-largest lithium producer gives it an important role in global EV supply chains.
The country has also made considerable progress in electrifying public transport, particularly in Santiago. Yet BEVs accounted for only around 3.5% of new light- and medium-duty vehicle sales in the first seven months of 2026.
Ben Scott, report author and Head of Energy Demand at Carbon Tracker, said:
“Much of the discussion around electric vehicles focuses on their upfront cost. But governments also need to consider the long-term economic costs of every additional petrol or diesel vehicle sold, from imported fuel demand to the wider health and climate impacts. Chile has the renewable electricity resources and industrial advantages to move faster. The challenge is to create the market conditions that will allow more households and businesses to benefit from electrification.”
Closing the gap between policy targets and market adoption
Chile’s National Electromobility Strategy, updated in June 2026, introduced an interim target of 20% zero-emission sales for light- and medium-duty vehicles by 2030, alongside its ambition to reach 100% by 2035. The Council of Ministers for Sustainability and Climate Change is expected to decide on Phase 2 of Chile’s vehicle efficiency standards before the end of 2026.
The report identifies maintaining Phase 2 of Chile’s Energy Efficiency Law as an immediate policy priority. Scheduled for 2027-2029, the next phase increases the average fuel efficiency standard for new light-duty vehicles from 18.8 to 22.8 kilometres per litre of gasoline equivalent.
Unlike a standard applied uniformly to individual vehicle models, the regulation assesses fleet-wide averages, giving manufacturers flexibility to meet the target through a mix of more efficient petrol, hybrid and electric vehicles. Automotive industry representatives have raised concerns about the potential impact of the tighter standards on vehicle prices and sales. Carbon Tracker argues that maintaining the timetable would help prevent less efficient ICE vehicles from being redirected to Chile as other markets strengthen their regulations, while encouraging manufacturers to supply more efficient and electric models.
Beyond maintaining existing standards, the report argues that achieving these targets will require stronger measures to accelerate adoption and encourage investment. Drawing on experiences in Ethiopia, Nepal and Vietnam, it recommends binding supply-side regulations to progressively phase down internal combustion engine vehicle sales, targeted fiscal incentives to improve BEV affordability, and coordinated investment in charging infrastructure, particularly outside Santiago and along major freight corridors.
These measures could help Chile reduce future fuel-import costs while supporting its energy security and climate objectives.
A wider economic opportunity for Latin America
The Chile study is the third in Carbon Tracker’s Leapfrog to Electric series, which assesses the economic and financial benefits of accelerating vehicle electrification in emerging economies.
Earlier reports found that Brazil [LINK] could avoid up to US$250 billion in cumulative fuel import costs by 2050, while Colombia [LINK] could save approximately US$40 billion.
Together, the three studies point to a broader economic case for transport electrification across Latin America. Although Brazil, Colombia and Chile have different automotive markets and policy frameworks, reducing dependence on imported fuels and accelerating EV adoption through targeted government policies should be priorities across the region.
Leapfrog to Electric: Chile was published in association with Centro de Movilidad Sostenible (CMS).
Explore the research
Chile: Leapfrog to Electric: Chile – The Economic Benefits of Pro-Electric Vehicle Policy
[Download the Chile report – English]
[Download the Chile report – Spanish]
Previous reports in the series:
Colombia: Leapfrog to Electric
Notes to editors
The US$27 billion figure represents cumulative modelled fuel import savings to 2050 under Carbon Tracker’s Accelerated BEV Transition scenario, compared with a business-as-usual scenario based on existing policies.
The analysis covers passenger cars, buses, and medium- and heavy-duty vehicles.
Spokesperson: Ben Scott, Head of Energy Demand, Carbon Tracker.
For media enquiries and interviews, contact media@tracker-group.org.
