The Seagull, the Seal, and the Jaecoo 7 – why the rise of plug-in hybrid SUVs may be slowing the energy transition in ways that matter most

A year ago, the rise of ultra-low-cost electric cars like the BYD Seagull suggested the energy transition in transport might accelerate rapidly into the mass market. But the cars actually gaining traction today—particularly in the UK and Europe—tell a more complicated story. The surge in plug-in hybrid SUVs, led by models like the Jaecoo 7 and BYD Seal U DM-i, raises a more uncomfortable question: are we measuring progress by the wrong scoreboard.

A year ago, I was enthusiastic—perhaps overly so—about the arrival of China’s BYD Seagull.

It felt like a hinge moment in transport electrification. Here was a small, efficient, fully electric car, built at scale and at a price point that suggested the transition might finally move beyond early adopters and into the mass market.

Not electrification as a premium feature, but as a default.

It pointed to a future defined by simplicity, efficiency—and a gradual decoupling of road transport from fossil fuels.

But markets, it seems, rarely move in straight lines.

Over the past year, something more complicated has taken hold.

Chinese manufacturers now dominate the global EV landscape. They account for the majority of production and battery supply (over 60% in both), and their domestic market has reached a scale where electrification is no longer niche but mainstream.

Having built that capability, they are now expanding aggressively into Europe and beyond.

But these companies are not NGOs. They are profit-seeking entrants, competing for share in unfamiliar markets.

And while they are highly capable at building electric vehicles, they are equally capable of building something else: “electrified” vehicles.

That distinction matters more than it first appears.

Because while cars like the Seagull represent one version of the future, the vehicles gaining traction in markets such as the UK tell a different story.

The rise of plug-in hybrid SUVs—models like the BYD Seal U DM-i and the Geely Jaecoo 7—suggests that the transition is unfolding along a more indirect path.

The Geely Jaecoo 7 – the brand from nowhere

PHEVs have waxed and waned in popularity – but they are not fringe products.

At points in 2026, for example, the Geely Jaecoo 7 has emerged as the best-selling car in the UK – amongst ALL cars, not just electrified ones.

And it is driven overwhelmingly in its plug-in hybrid version – it is also available as a 100% petrol version, but no fully electric variant is available. Launched in January 2025, from nowhere it has become the best-selling UK car in just 15 months.

BYD’s rapid UK growth has similarly been supported by its Seal U DM-i—a new plug-in hybrid SUV, available only in this mode.

Both leading brands, focussing new market growth via PHEVs.

In the wider UK picture whilst 100% battery electric vehicles (BEVs) grew by 14% in Q1 2026 compared to Q1 2025, PHEVs grew by 47% .

So although BEVs moved slightly from 21% to 22% of all car sales, PHEVs jumped from 9% to 13%.

Which raises a fundamental question:

Are we measuring the transition using the wrong scoreboard?

If the metric is “electrified vehicles sold,” the story looks strong.

But if the metric is displaced oil use, real-world emissions, and ongoing exposure to fossil fuel volatility, the picture becomes more ambiguous.

Plug-in hybrids are appealing for obvious reasons.

They align with existing behaviour: electric driving for short trips, petrol backup for longer ones, and no requirement to fully commit to charging infrastructure. For many buyers—particularly those with motorway-heavy usage—that feels like a rational compromise.

But that compromise depends heavily on how the vehicle is actually used.

Take that Jaecoo 7. Like many PHEVs, it advertises extremely low fuel consumption under test conditions.

But those figures rely on fragile assumptions: frequent charging and a high proportion of electric driving. When those assumptions break down—as they often do in practice—fuel consumption rises sharply.

Real-world studies suggest that many PHEVs deliver fuel economy far closer to conventional petrol vehicles than their official ratings imply.

The same dynamic applies to the BYD Seal U DM-i. Its electric range is sufficient for many daily journeys, but only if it is consistently charged and used as an electric car first.

Without that behavioural shift, PHEVs become something very different: a petrol SUV carrying an underutilised battery. But with the warm glow of electrified modernity still prominent in mind.

This is the reality gap at the heart of the current transition.

Range Anxiety becomes Fuel Anxiety

The reality gap is not just about fuel consumption and emissions. It is also about exposure.

A plug-in hybrid remains fully dependent on petrol infrastructure and global oil markets.

That dependency may feel like reassurance in normal conditions. But in periods of geopolitical strain—such as those affecting global supply routes in the Gulf—it becomes a source of vulnerability.

What was once framed as “range security” can quickly become fuel exposure.

We tend to focus on range anxiety as the key barrier to EV adoption. But recent events suggest that fuel anxiety—concern about price volatility and supply disruption—may be just as relevant.

And in that context, the difference between a vehicle that can operate entirely on electricity and one that still relies heavily on petrol is not marginal.

It is fundamental: the PHEV is yoked to the international energy supply chain of fossil fuels via a rubber tube: the 100% BEV is decoupled and reliant only on energy provided by domestic plug sockets.

PHEVs – a new tool to open up new markets

This critique of plug-in hybrids is not new.

For years, they were understood as a transitional technology. A bridge to full BEVs.

Markets such as Norway demonstrated that clearly: once charging infrastructure matured and fully electric vehicles became cost-competitive, PHEVs faded quickly.

But something has changed.

What is different now is not the technology, but the EV growth strategy.

New entrants like BYD and Geely are not managing a transition away from internal combustion. They are entering new markets in search of growth and share. And in that context, plug-in hybrids serve a different role.

They are not simply a bridge to electrification. They are a bridge into the market itself.

That shift matters because it changes the incentives.

For incumbents still reliant on petrol and diesel car sales, electrification is disruptive—it threatens existing business models.

For new entrants, both BEVs and PHEVs are key market access tools.

For them – the question is not which technology best aligns with long-term decarbonisation, that is for NGOs to consider, but which product gains new market traction fastest.

Right now, in markets like the UK and wider EU, that product is increasingly the plug-in hybrid SUV.

The data reflects this. While battery electric vehicles continue to grow, the share of BEVs within “electrified” sales has recently declined as PHEVs regain momentum.

In the UK, BEVs accounted for around 70% of electric sales in early 2025, falling to 63% in Q1 2026 as plug-in hybrid growth accelerated.

This is not a failure of the transition. But it is a rational response to consumer behaviour and infrastructure constraints that may stall progress.

And it has consequences.

Markets do not just respond to demand; they shape it.

The vehicles that are most visible, most available, and most aggressively financed become the default choices.

And once that default is established, it persists—not for years, but decades; with each plug-in hybrid vehicle becoming a persistent source of oil demand, on the road for the next 10-15 years.

The too comfortable compromise

The risk, then, is not that plug-in hybrids exist, they have been available for over a decade, but that they now in their latest new upgrade become too successful.

Too aligned with current habits.

Too profitable for manufacturers.

Too comfortable as a compromise.

In that scenario, the transition continues—but its impact is diluted.

Oil demand declines more slowly.

Emissions fall less than expected (road transport already accounts for 15% of the global total).

Exposure to global fossil fuel markets remains embedded.

This is where language begins to matter. The category of “electrified vehicles” now spans everything from fully electric cars to petrol SUVs with a small battery attached.

Treating them as equivalent risks overstating progress – and many transport transition policy documents eg in the UK allows plug-in hybrids similar status to full-electric vehicles.

If the measure is simply how many vehicles contain a battery, the transition looks rapid.

If the measure is how much petrol is being displaced, the answer is far less clear.

That distinction is not semantic. It goes to the heart of how we understand progress.

So where does that leave us?

We arrive at a junction.

In one direction lies a comfortable plateau. Plug-in hybrids dominate the middle ground. They meet consumer needs and sustain PHEV growth for their manufacturers, but without fundamentally breaking the link to petrol.

The transition continues, but more slowly—and with much greater exposure to fossil fuel markets.

In the other direction lies a shorter bridge. Plug-in hybrids play that transitional role, and one that is overtaken relatively quickly.

Charging infrastructure improves, economics shift, and fully electric vehicles become the default across most segments. The ceiling of what can be achieved with latest battery technology appears to rise by the week.

But – the outcome will not be determined by technology alone.

Policy will matter—particularly whether incentives reflect real-world usage.

Infrastructure will matter—especially the reliability and reach of charging networks.

And behaviour will matter—perhaps more than anything else in the next few years. Because a 100% BEV electric vehicle displaces petrol every day. A poorly used plug-in hybrid displaces little.

There is also a case for now looking beyond private cars. In commercial segments—vans, buses, heavy-duty vehicles—the economics of electrification are often clearer, and utilisation more predictable.

Progress there may deliver more immediate reductions in oil demand than the more ambiguous consumer SUV segment.

If you have a tailpipe, you will use it

This is not a recanting of last year’s optimism.

The direction of travel remains clear. Fully electric vehicles—particularly those built around efficiency and affordability, like the BYD Seagull—still represent the most credible long-term outcome.

But it is a recognition that the path is not going to be linear.

The transition is not a simple shift from petrol to electric. It is a contested process, shaped by incentives, behaviour, and external shocks.

The destination has not changed.

But the route—and the pace—now depend on a clearer understanding of what actually displaces fossil fuel dependency – for the individual and the wider energy system.

And that, ultimately, is the scoreboard that matters.

I ended the original Seagull piece noting “EVs mean 100% battery EVs – we don’t accept tail-pipes in this analysis.”

But – so far – when we talk of hybrid electric vehicles we seem to be following a form of Chekhov’s rule: if a tailpipe exists in a plug-in hybrid, it will get used.