Research
We carry out scenario analysis and research to examine and understand how potential changes to supply and demand will impact the future of fossil fuel-exposed companies and projects. This analysis helps the investment community better understand the financial implications of tackling climate change
Popular Reports
Still Flying Blind: The Absence of Climate Risk in...
Climate risk disclosure
06 October 2022
African Sun: Why Solar Not Gas Offers Continent the...
Energy transition
14 November 2022
The Future’s Not in Plastics: Why plastics demand...
Energy transition
04 September 2020
Crude Intentions: How oil and gas executives are still...
Oil
04 November 2022
Oil
Flash Note
21 November 2022
Refining exposure to an accelerating energy transition
The energy transition threatens companies involved in the downstream refining sector whose revenue is dependent on the continued sale of...
Oil
Analyst Note
04 November 2022
Crude Intentions: How oil and gas executives are still rewarded to chase fossil growth, despite the urgent need to transition
The energy transition is fundamentally shifting the way oil and gas companies operate; as demand falls for fossil fuels, traditional...
Corporate Research
Journal
25 October 2022
The Transition Files: periodic thoughts and views on companies, industries and energy transition
The Transition Files In Volume 1, this journal comprises: an article on SHELL, another on Discounted Cash Flows, and one on Company...
Oil
Analyst Note
07 September 2022
Feet to the Fire: An analysis of potential outcomes of the Colorado 700-Series Rulemaking
Colorado’s new financial assurance rules will help mitigate orphan well risk, but the benefits are blunted by substantial flaws. The...
Oil
Blog
02 September 2022
Why drilling for more fossil fuels won’t bring UK energy security or cut prices
The UK’s energy security strategy is back at the forefront of political debate. As the government looks to show leadership on climate...
Analyst Notes
Analyst Note
29 July 2022
Event Horizon: A Case Study of Holdback and the Point of No Return for Decommissioning Upstream Oil and Gas “Assets”
When oil companies defer saving for asset retirement obligations (AROs), the liabilities accumulate. Meanwhile production, and...Popular Reads
Still Flying Blind: The Absence of Climate Risk in Financial Reporting
We carry out scenario analysis and research to examine and understand how potential changes to supply and...
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African Sun: Why Solar Not Gas Offers Continent the Best Economic Opportunity in the Transition
We carry out scenario analysis and research to examine and understand how potential changes to supply and...
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But it might just save the world North American oil and gas companies are going big on carbon capture, utilisation, and...
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In June, Saudi Aramco published its first ever Sustainability Report, containing details of its "net zero by 2050” target and...
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Over $1 trillion of oil & gas assets risk becoming stranded as a result of policy action on climate and the rise in...
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Fossil fuel commodity prices are likely to remain volatile with the prospect for further embargos. This is a manifestation of non...
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The Gulf of Mexico has long been a major oil and gas producing region for the U.S., but field depletion in shallower regions near...
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Oil and gas companies are still failing to commit to the absolute emissions reductions necessary to link their businesses to the...
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Shell recently published its first Energy Transition Progress Report. The document has been produced ahead of the AGM on 24...
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With respect to asset retirement obligations in the oil patch, every regulator has to answer three questions: How do you...
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Late last month ExxonMobil launched its Advancing Climate Solutions – 2022 Progress Report,[1] which describes how it is...
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Managing Peak Oil: Why rising oil prices could create a stranded asset...
Oil Analyst Note January 2022Firms can avoid wasting $500bn with managed approach to transition in Inevitable Policy Response scenario even if oil demand...
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Carbon Tracker recently announced that it was creating a Global Registry of Fossil Fuels, the “Registry,” which will be a...
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To keep 1.5°C alive, immediate action on methane emissions is required from the oil and gas industry, with significant impact...
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Third Point, the US activist hedge fund, has recently proposed a significant change to the corporate structure of Shell,...
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In January, the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) will vote on the new financial assurance rules for Colorado,...
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Mergers and acquisition (M&A) activity is shaking up the Australian oil and gas sector. In two proposed all-share deals,...
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When a well is drilled, a legal obligation to plug the well and reclaim the surface is created This is a critical aspect of...
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Repsol has seemingly upped its emissions cutting game In early October, responding to shareholder pressure, Repsol announced a...
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Summary As the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission’s (COGCC) seeks to fulfill its statutory mandate to “require...
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Race to the Top: Internalising oil and gas retirement costs
Climate risk disclosure Report October 2021Compared to other large oil and gas producing states, California and Ohio rank last in forcing the closure of idled, abandoned...
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Colorado’s ineffective financial assurance and well plugging rules have allowed the growth of a large portfolio of marginal and...
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Committing to net zero is not enough – the emissions reduction pathway is critical Carbon Tracker’s fifth annual...
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Financial assurance requirements are universally considered to be too low to pay for plugging and abandoning wells. An inventory...
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Oil and gas companies are increasingly announcing new climate goals as they seek to maintain a social licence to...
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Shell and Eni’s recent strategy updates have highlighted a key emerging point in the debate on oil and gas companies’...
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There’s a quip about lawyers that goes 99% of attorneys give the rest a bad name. The same can be said about oil producers...
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“Having looked to government for bread, on the first scarcity they will turn and bite the hand that fed them.” Edmund...
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2020 was a tough year for big oil. Short-term demand was hammered by the impacts of Covid-19, while the ever-growing...
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Emissions trajectories continue to bend lower Last month, both Shell and Eni revised their scope 3 emissions plans, updating...
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Beyond Petrostates: The burning need to cut oil dependence in the energy...
Oil Report February 2021Fossil fuel-reliant countries could see a drop of 51% in government oil and gas revenues in a shift to a low-carbon world over...
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Carbon Tracker's Christmas Cracker had a makeover in 2020. This infographic originally went out in our December newsletter,...
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Groundhog Pay: How executive incentives trap companies in a loop of fossil...
Oil Analyst Note December 2020The energy transition will require oil and gas companies to fundamentally change the way they do business. Groundhog Pay...
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2020 has, to put it mildly, been full of surprises. Oil and gas companies, long predictable and averse to change, have even...
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The oil and gas industry, like many other commodity industries, has long been characterised by volatility, instability and...
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Between 2014 and the end of 2019, ExxonMobil 's return to shareholders was negative 10%. In September 2014, Carbon Tracker...
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Given the 24 hour news cycle around the US Congressional and Presidential Election, it would be easy to focus only on what...
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Fault Lines: How diverging oil and gas company strategies link to stranded...
Oil Report October 2020In a series of reports since 2011, Carbon Tracker has shown the financial and stranded asset risks to fossil fuel producers...
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There are 2.6 million unplugged onshore wells in the U.S., with another estimated 1.2 million that are undocumented. In It’s...
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BP has elaborated on its strategy to deliver net zero – cutting oil and gas production by “at least” 40% by...
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Click here to view Carbon Tracker's Annual Review 2019 In 2019 our objective was to accelerate the energy transition by...
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Carbon Tracker's modelling shows no new oil sands are needed in a low carbon world. Prospective pipelines and projects represent...
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There is growing recognition that drastic changes to oil and gas consumption are required to meet the finite limits of a global...
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The Earth's temperatures continue to rise causing catastrophic climate change. The risks of climate change are having major...
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Carbon Tracker pioneered work on the oil and gas industry’s “stranded assets”; as investors increasingly ask whether oil...
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The oil industry’s financial statements reflect climate change conflict Oil and gas companies have never been under more...
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Key findings: Our research shows that UK Export Finance supports upstream oil projects that seem very likely to become...
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At the end of February, Italian oil major Eni announced new carbon emissions reduction plans. While not aiming for net zero...
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In ancient Greek theatre, deus ex machina (“god from the machine”) is when a seemingly intractable plot issue is...
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This blog updates our 2018 note Carbon Budgets Explained. Carbon budgets – the amount of carbon dioxide emissions permitted...
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The Covid-19 crisis is showing up the oil and gas industry’s exposure to the threat of falling demand, a forewarning of what...
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One of last year’s key developments relating to climate change risks was a handful of fossil fuel producers agreeing to show...
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Written by: Greg Rogers, Theron Horton, Rob Schuwerk Is the goal to get out all of the oil, or get out of the retirement...
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The arms race in setting carbon emissions targets is such that Shell, once one of the industry leaders when it announced its...
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COVID-19 continues to shake the global economy, and energy markets are no exception. Oil in particular finds itself caught...
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Fanning the Flames: How executives continue to be rewarded to produce more...
Oil Analyst Note March 2020Company executives pay practice doesn’t yet live up to climate ambition, with the gap between stated ambition and demonstrable...
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The piece originally was posted to LGIM Future World Blog on February 26, 2020. It is reprinted with permission. By Nick...
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The Flip Side: Stranded Assets and Stranded Liabilities
Climate risk disclosure Analyst Note February 2020Carbon Tracker’s fundamental insight is that the oil and gas industry’s growth plans do not fit in a low carbon world. As...
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Amid ever-increasing concerns over climate risks, BP is the latest European oil and gas company to announce a climate goal with...
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Handbrake Turn: The cost of failing to anticipate an Inevitable Policy...
Oil Analyst Note January 2020In this report, we look at the Inevitable Policy Response (IPR), which models the potential impacts of delayed tough...
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Repsol has just announced a shift in strategic direction – to become a net zero emissions company by 2050. This move extends...
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To deflate the carbon bubble and protect investors, oil & gas companies must shrink The world’s listed oil and gas majors...
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Carbon Tracker's mission is to align investors strategies to climate change action. We recognise that there is...
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Once upon a time – the 1990s if you are interested -- there was a wondrous oil company called Exxon. It was run by a clever...
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This report provides an update to our 2017 and 2018 "2 Degrees of Separation" reports, along with an updated methodology. The...
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The following piece originally was posted to Oilprice.com on March 3, 2019. It is reprinted with permission. Investors are...
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The UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) has reported on its recommended targets for the UK to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions...
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Why shareholders should rethink executive reward For much of the early part of this century, the oil and gas industry was in...
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In this study we review the remuneration practice used in the oil and gas industry and look at alignment with either growth or...
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Why carbon intensity ambitions are welcome, but strict limits on future project sanction remain the route to Paris...
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This blog originally appeared on the IEEFA website By Tom Sanzillo, Kathy Hipple and Clark Williams-Derry Invest in the...
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By Paul Spedding BP chief executive Bob Dudley is at risk of being branded an altruist if his “Oil and Money” speech to...
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Carbon capture and storage, or CCS, refers to technologies that allow us to capture CO2 at the source of its production and...
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One of the questions we are most frequently asked by investors is – how can we tell if a company is “Paris compliant”? This...
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This report updates our 2 Degrees of Separation report, published in June 2017 2 Degrees of Separation laid out a framework...
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EV Oil Demand Displacement Interactive Tool This report and accompanying interactive tool look exclusively at...
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Summary Occidental neglects demand fundamentals in its 2°C analysis and opts for the foregone conclusion of a test against...
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This study updates our report 2 Degrees of Separation, and for the first time quantifies risk of overinvestment under a 1.75ᵒC...
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ExxonMobil's Energy and Carbon Summary is a step in the right direction, but lacks clarity across a number of...
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A PDF version of this paper is available here. An updated version of this note is available now in Carbon Budgets: Where are...
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If you read just one thing this year…… first, it’s December! What took you so long?......second, make it this. Much...
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Headlines Growth of electric vehicles (EVs) in scenarios developed by some oil majors is ten years behind the level expected...
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What does a 2°C scenario mean for future refining capacity? In this paper, we look at how a scenario for oil demand that is...
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Explore the report webpage: 2degreeseparation.com This report, produced by Carbon Tracker, Principles for Responsible...
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Unexpectedly, the oil and gas love-in that is CERAWeek saw the latest round of climate risk disclosure emerging from the oil...
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The 12 Days of Carbon Tracker Well…that was different. 2016 has been quite the year of change. A year of political events that...
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Even if oil prices rise in the aftermath of the OPEC agreement on cutting production, the oil industry should be wary of...
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Why a 2°C business model is less risky than 'business-as-usual' for oil companies. The business model for many companies in the...
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Carbon Tracker’s reports and blogs are available in seven different languages: Arabic...
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U.S. and European oil and gas companies are under increasing pressure from shareholders to stress test their businesses against a...
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Oil majors could be worth up to $140 billion more by aligning production with climate targets
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A series of recent Forbes articles intend to cast doubt on the relevance of stranded asset risks to investors. Mark Fulton,...
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In 2016, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has a major opportunity to develop a new industry, an opportunity that became something of...
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By Paul Spedding, Former Global Co-Head of Oil And Gas Research at HSBC and Advisor to Carbon Tracker. First appeared on...
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Just because one of Britain's best loved vehicles rolled off the production line for the last time last week doesn't...
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Stranded Assets a Response: Myth or Reality? Late last year respected British economist Dieter Helm dismissed the concept of...
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The data is clear – the energy transition is underway, and the direction of travel is away from fossil fuels. But not everyone...
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Is Royal Dutch Shell, one of the world’s biggest oil and gas companies, really turning its back on fossil fuels? Not only has...
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Petrobras’ recent launch of a notional $2.5 billion worth of 100-year bonds has been viewed as evidence that investors,...
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First appeared in BusinessGreen As the world’s top financiers gather in Paris ahead of International Climate Finance Day on...
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The steep fall in the price of oil since the middle of last year has brought volatility back to the market with a vengeance,...
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The 2015 Oil Spending Review is in Full Swing With oil prices collapsing to between $50/$60 a barrel (at the...
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Over the past 18 months the Carbon Tracker Initiative has written a number of studies on the economics of the controversial...
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During 2014, following in the footsteps of Shell and ExxonMobil, oil and gas industry association IPIECA published a “fact...
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Carbon Tracker Initiative's Anthony Hobley argues that far from being a disaster for clean tech, low oil prices could aid...
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Carbon Tracker comment on US-China climate change agreement “For Carbon Tracker, today’s announcement of the “joint...
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Shell underestimates risk for up to $77 bln of high cost oil projects The Carbon Tracker Initiative (CTI) and Energy...
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This report is a risk analysis which provides a tool for the majority of investors who cannot simply divest, so they can...
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Exxon: Is business as normal the right strategy? Earlier this month, ExxonMobil published a document entitled, “Energy and...
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Carbon Tracker respond to the US Department of State's Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (FSEIS) with our new...
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The fourth in the series of Carbon Tracker's Unburnable Carbon reports, focuses on Brazil - a country with the fascinating...
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This new research from Carbon Tracker and the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at LSE calls...
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Carbon Tracker and Standard & Poors have been working together on the implications of carbon constraints for credit ratings...
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This is the original report which pioneered the concept of the 'Carbon Bubble'. This award-winning analysis by Carbon...
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