Core themes:

Following the oil report, this risk analysis focuses for the first time on the global coal industry, highlighting that $112bn of future capital expenditure (capex) in potential thermal coal production (excluding China) is at risk of becoming stranded.

• Profits in thermal coal are already hard to find in today’s market. Coal companies are facing greater headwinds all the time with greater energy efficiency, cheaper alternatives and new pollution regulations eroding demand.
• Future demand and price levels may not meet current industry expectations. High cost coal producers are gambling on survival in the hope that prices will somehow recover.
• Peak thermal coal demand in China could be imminent. OECD demand is already falling. The resulting oversupply could flood the market, further weakening prices and asset values.
• Deploying additional capital expenditure into high cost production is risky, especially for new mines, which typically require expensive new rail infrastructure and port facilities to get coal to market.

Find here the report Coal Report – Media Coverage

TESTIMONIALS

King Coal is becoming King Canute, as the industry struggles to turn back the tide of reducing demand, falling prices and lower earnings.

Anthony Hobley
CEO, CTI

We see a low demand scenario leading to a $75/tonne peak break-even price for profitable new development in seaborne markets –companies and investors need to understand their exposure to projects higher up the cost curve.

Mark Fulton
Founder, ETA

The world’s coal industry is playing musical chairs with demand – every time the music stops another piece of the market is being taken away.

James Leaton
Research Director, CTI

The world is changing for the fossil fuel industry, especially the coal sector which is facing a shrinking demand window. Investors want assurances that capital is not being spent on high-cost, high-carbon projects that may not be competitive as global coal demand declines.

Mindy Lubber
President Ceres