Introduction: This report analyzes the financial implications and opportunities of transitioning the global heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) fleet from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles (EVs). It highlights market potential, challenges, and the role of manufacturers and regional emissions legislation in this shift.

Key Questions Addressed:

  1. Conditions for a $320bn Re-fleeting Opportunity: What conditions need to be met before creating a re-fleeting opportunity worth $320bn?
  2. Financial Returns for Manufacturers: Why should bus and truck manufacturers quickly transition to solely producing battery electric vehicles to deliver superior financial returns?
  3. Policy Implications: Which key policy implications should stakeholders model into their assumptions?
  4. Financial Willingness of Manufacturers: Which manufacturers have the financial willingness to transition?
  5. Financial Ability of Manufacturers: Which manufacturers have the financial ability to transition?
  6. Critical Questions: What are the key questions to ask corporates regarding their assumptions behind the pivot to electric HDVs?

Methodology: Like all Carbon Tracker research, this report is fact-based, data-driven, and focuses on the economic and financial analysis of the risks and opportunities tied to the global energy transition.

Target Audience: This note is intended for all stakeholders, including buy/sell side equity & fixed income analysts, engagement teams, credit analysts at lenders/ insurers as well as the corporates themselves, policymakers & key fleet actors.