Why aviation’s net zero plan still doesn’t fly.

Key industry players are failing to align stated decarbonisation ambitions with the necessary capital expenditure and R&D allocation.  

Investment into conventional aircraft dwarfs current efforts to scale up new propulsion aircraft (electric, hydrogen and hybrid). Over 12x as many conventional aircraft were ordered in 2024 as new propulsion aircraft.  

Locking in long-lived fossil fuel infrastructure risks stranding capital and undermining climate goals. Whereas industry leaders who pivot early toward new propulsion aircraft  stand to gain a competitive edge as regulations tighten and customer demand for low-carbon travel rises. 

This report examines the current market for new propulsion aircraft in light of the role they will need to play in decarbonising the aviation sector. Close attention is paid to the activities of the dominant manufacturers, Airbus and Boeing, and major European airlines such as IAG. The advantages and disadvantages of different technological options for cutting emissions, including “sustainable aviation fuels” (SAF), are assessed in turn. 

Our analysis is principally aimed at the investment community and policymakers seeking to understand the sector’s progress to date, with recommendations for how to hold industry actors accountable and accelerate action.