Sustainable. Abundant. Feasible – why SAF is unlikely to be all three at once.

Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this decade. Even if all existing, under-development and announced projects ran at full capacity, AJF would account for only about 5% of global jet fuel and meet less than half of projected demand growth by 2030. Longer-term, hurdles like high costs, scarce sustainable feedstocks and weak bankability may keep further scaling constrained. Truly sustainable AJF should be preserved for long-haul flights, with other, maturing solutions deployed to decarbonise short-haul flights. 

“By 2030, the potential supply from existing and announced alternative fuel projects will cover only a small share of global jet fuel demand.” 

AJF capacity vs total jet fuel consumption, Mt

Even assuming 100% utilisation, existing and announced projects will supply only ca.5% of global jet fuel in 2030.

Utilisation reality – growth gap to 2030

At an 80% utilisation rate, additional AJF capacity meets only 17–30% of incremental demand to 2030; for every additional tonne of jet fuel potentially displaced, more than one additional tonne will not.

Key findings 

• Near-term shortfall: By 2030, potential AJF supply covers only a small share of total jet fuel consumption and fails to offset its growth. 
• Sustainability criteria: Not all “SAF” is sustainable – several pathways carry risks to nature and climate. 
• Seven hurdles to scale: Costs and price premiums; regulatory uncertainty; lack of long-term offtake; weak bankability; feedstock availability; feedstock sustainability; opportunity costs. 
• Right-sizing roles: AJF has a role, but a smaller one, mostly in long-haul flight; short-haul decarbonisation can proceed sooner with zero-emission and hybrid-electric aircraft, alongside operational measures. 

What this means 

For investors 

• Right-size expectations for AJF. 
• Assess projects for costs, sustainable feedstock availability, and broader sustainability impacts. 
• Consider other options, such as zero-emission aircraft, as part of a broader set of decarbonisation measures. 

For policymakers and regulators 

• Tighten sustainability guardrails so fuels with high environmental integrity are prioritised and unintended consequences avoided. 
• Implement revenue-certainty mechanisms that de-risk advanced projects and reward real emissions performance. 
• Support parallel routes – accelerate zero-emission and hybrid-electric options for short-haul flights to deliver earlier cuts while preserving truly sustainable AJF for long-haul. 
• Take an economy-wide view, assessing where limited feedstocks are best deployed and consider opportunity costs of using them in aviation rather than other sectors 

Dive into the full report for more insights shaping the future of sustainable flight.

Notes 

• Terminology: The report treats AJF as the broad category and notes that while many fuels are labelled ‘SAF’, only some meet high sustainability standards – and this is stated explicitly where applicable.