Expect the Unexpected
The disruptive power of low-carbon technology

This interactive accompanies the Expect the Unexpected: The disruptive power of low-carbon technology report produced in partnership between Carbon Tracker and the Grantham Institute. These scenarios explore the extent to which ongoing cost reductions could see solar photovoltaics (PV) and electric vehicles impact future coal, oil and gas demand, and subsequent CO2 emissions. Users can also vary the level of climate policy effort and global energy demand in each scenario to understand their role.

The default pathway (dark grey in the interactive) is a scenario that assumes a level of climate policy consistent with the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and solar PV and EV costs based on the latest available data and market trends. It is our contention that this scenario reflects the minimum level of constraint that can be expected in terms of future fossil fuel demand and CO2 emissions given the current state of the low-carbon transition.

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