How much might electric vehicles (EVs) cut in to demand for oil?

This tool allows users to play with the 3 key variables that underpin how much oil demand might be displaced by EVs. This accompanies a report that looks at each variable in more detail and the inter-relationships between them.

Carbon Tracker concludes that EVs alone could cause peak oil demand by the late 2020’s – with annual marginal growth in oil demand entirely offset by EVs as early as 2027. However, to have the best chance of meeting the +2C climate target, oil demand will need to be curtailed from other oil consuming sectors other than the road transport sector too.

As such, it is our contention that EVs pose a risk of disruption to the oil industry that should not be dismissed.

Choose your scenario input:
Growth in electric vehicles (EVs) ?
Conservative O&G major
Conservative O&G major
Consistent with ExxonMobil (2018) Energy Outlook – 160m EVs by 2040
Leading O&G major
Consistent with Statoil Reform (2017) scenario – 200m EVs by 2030 and growing strongly thereafter
2°C scenario
Consistent with IEA (2017) Sustainable Development Scenario – 900m EVs by 2040
Carbon Tracker/Imperial (2017)
Consistent with ‘NDC_EV’ scenario – over 1bn EVs by 2040
Growth in annual mileage per EV ?
Low
Low
1% compound annual growth (CAGR)
Medium
2.5% compound annual growth (CAGR)
High
4% compound annual growth (CAGR)
Efficiency gains of new ICEs (MPG) ?
Current rate of fuel economy gains
Current rate of fuel economy gains
1.5% compound annual growth (CAGR)
Conservative O&G major
Consistent with ExxonMobil (2018) Energy Outlook – 2.1% CAGR
Progressive O&G major
Consistent with BP (2018) Energy Outlook – 2.5% CAGR
2°C scenario
Consistent with Global Fuel Economy Initiative – 3.7% CAGR
0.1 mbd0.3 mbd0.8 mbd1.4 mbd2.3 mbd202020252030203520400.00.51.01.52.02.53.0Million barrels oil per day (mbd)2 mbdPotential disruption*
*Potential Disruption
The oil price crash of 2014 was the result of a 2mbd imbalance in supply-demand. Similar disruption could result if the oil and gas industry misreads EV substitution risk.